Question for our Californians...

[Rami]

Hey guys,

Morning to all of you. I just wanted to ask about the weather there. Is the abundant rain setting things up for another brutal fire season? I remember Daveroo once mentioning that the abundant rain makes things grow like crazy, and if you get another big dry spell, it becomes tinder for big fires.

I know that the abundance of snow in the Sierra Nevada bodes well not only for skiing, but for snow melt, which will help to replenish both the aquifers and the groundwater. The last report I heard was that most of Northern and Central California were no longer considered to be under drought conditions or even abnormally dry.

So in your experience, how does this all shake out?

[gman5250]

I'm on the East Slope of the Sierra Nevada Mounatains, two hours south of Lake Tahoe.

What we are getting here is about 50% heavy wet snow, and 50% average or dry snow. I'm at 7000 feet elevation and we have a good four feet on the ground. As you get to 9000 feet there is probably ten feet on the ground, and over 11,000 feet it's anybod's guess...probably over twenty feet. The mountains directly behind me are almost vertical, and the heavy snow has stuck to even the steepest faces. It's pure white.

We are not at a record year...yet, but the season still has a long way to go, and the weather patterns indicate we will continue in this cycle. Record years are measured in inches or feet, but water content is the factor we are talking about. The stuff I just shoveled off my roof...about three feet thick was absolutely laden with water. There were tons on my roof and when I first put the shovel to it I couldn't believe the weight of it. There is a LOT of water on the Sierras right now...and more coming. The warmer storms really bring it.

I'm not sure about the West Slope, the radar has shown a good deal of rain over there, but at altitude along the Silver Divide it's been solid blue....snow...every storm. Most of that melt goes West, but on this side we are anticipating a huge runoff well into the Summer months. It usually peaks around June.

The guys over on the West side can better report on the reservoirs and aquifers, but last time we had snow like this the Central Valley was very wet and reservoirs like Oroville went to capacity literally overnight.

The fire abatement and forest management in Kalifornia has not changed to my knowledge so fuel will be abundant...again. We never know what to expect from lightning storms in Spring and utilities infrastructure is...well...in need of maintenance. We had a fire here three years ago that began with downed power lines from wind. The fire went straight up a canyon and wiped out an entire community...within minutes. People lost everything and barely got out. One road in and one road out.

Best thing people can do is maintain their property. I live in a metal structure, so I'm in good shape, but a fire storm will literally blow windows out and fire will burn right through. We can run to the lake if necessary, but I keep all of my important bits in a fire safe and my work/data on an external I can grab and carry with me. The rest is insured.

I won't go into the politics, but let's just say that there is room for improvement.

BTW:
I have no idea what to expect from this coming fire season. What I do know, from the available evidence, is that the contributors to extreme fire conditions do and will persist...and it does not look good for people who live in areas exposed to fire risk.

[MrZippy]

So in your experience, how does this all shake out?

I think this sums it up quite well!

[BurningBeard]

I'm at the north end of the central valley, and as of yesterday we are six inches above normal rainfall. There is a ton of snow everywhere to the east and north (Sierra Nevadas and Cascades). Even a lot in the west (Coast Range) which is usually pretty sparse. The Sacramento River is running way high but would have been at flood stage if not for the local dams holding it back. There has been a lot of localized flooding in low areas and along Interstate 5 south of us. The dams are gonna fill very quickly when the snow starts melting so it is anyone's guess if we will avoid more flooding.

Forest practices are what is causing the fires. Thinning needs to be done and there are lots (millions) of dead trees and trees damaged in previous fires need to be taken out (environmental practices have blocked this) and we are suffering because of it. Cal Fire (state fire department) says it will be a bad fire year every year, you can almost set your watch by the yearly announcement. Apparently talking to the old locals, this is the type of weather we used to have in the 30s.

Beard

[ratty]

I live in the San Diego area, and we've had a couple of big fires in the last decade. "Big dry spell" is pretty much the norm here from April through December, and, yes, the extra rain means extra growth means more fuel. We're just warned to be careful: keep a protected space around the house if you live in or on the edge of the back country, be careful with power tools, gas weed whackers, and where you park your car when the humidity is down around 10%, and so on. The California Department of Forestry have beefed up their air resources in recent years, but we were lucky there were no fires down here last year when the big ones broke out up north, as they'd have been seriously overloaded.

As with earthquakes, people just kinda cross their fingers and go on with life. At least we don't get tornadoes, hurricanes, or volcanic eruptions (yet).

[wombat666]

Can I mention a few points from the perspective of one who lives with the threat of fire each year, albeit on the opposite side of the Pacific.

First things first, if one lives in a Fire Zone then one is responsible for looking after their property.
Our 'farm' is situated on the edge of one the Mornington Peninsula National Parks and we've cleared the area on our property right up to the park.
All our buildings are steel framed and have most of the original timber replaced with compressed Bamboo impregnated with retardant.
An extensive sprinkler system and protected guttering should take care of any airborne embers.
Our final point of safety is a 40' Shipping Container buried well out of harms way.

Rain is a scarce commodity in the South of the country, in contrast to the disastrous tropical deluges in the North.
Drought is crippling the Central pastoral areas and flooding in the North has killed around 1M+/- cattle, let alone millions of native fish killed by our depleted Murray-Darling river system.
As the Australian Summer comes to and end Snowfalls on our skiing areas are reaching unusually high pre season levels.

'Stuff' happens and it rolls downhill.

At this point in time (as I understand it) fire ravaged areas of California have an enormous problem with mud slides.
Fire kills off all the trees and scrub, soil that has been stabilised over decades by these trees has absorbed the rains and become unstable to the point where destructive avalanches of 'mud' are killing people and destroying property that missed the fires.
Responsible Forest management involves clearing underbrush and anything that generates fuel.
The indigenous Australians are masters of 'cold burning' and this technique is coming to the fore with forestry management and fire services.
Unfortunately we can't legislate against stupidity and people will continue to build and live in heavily timbered areas without taking responsible precautions, it is great to get away from the 'burbs' but one road in and out is a huge risk.

California is not that different to Australia.

[Daveroo]

i agree with all ive read here.forest management is to blame for alot of the bad wild fire situation,but that said forest management isnt just on the forest products industry and like was said the evnviro terrorists have a big hand in the situation rightnow,they even stop minor under story clean up.there has been some control burns already this year in some areas,but they can no longer do it where smoke would impact residents so then everyone can complain and moan about the thick smoke all summer in places due to wildland fires. and about Calfires tankers,remember that the S2Ts are mostly IA tools,once a fire is established,they back off and return to their home bases and the heavies take over,you will see a small number of them hitting spots but with the heavies load vs the S2ts load,theyre pretty ineffective against large fires.
below is i pic i stole off FB this am,its the Truckee airport from this morning (2-18-19)
and dont forget that northern ca is a Mediterranean climate,so yes it is a drier and more tepid(?) area,why grapes grow so well here? lol.and what some people dont know ,remember,believe whatever,is that the LA basin itself ,even though its on the coast,is a desert climate and always has been.dry and doesnt have much of its own water.

[capun]

The California Department of Water Resources (aka DWR) measures the snow depth and water content through the winter time. Here's a link to the current data, basically we are running about 140% on Normal to date and over 100% of the water content in April 1st. Snow in the Sierras (aka Sierra Cement) has a fairly high water content, powder snow (skiers delight) has a low water content.

https://cdec.water.ca.gov/snowapp/sweq.action

The key question is if we get a hot spring too quickly and melt the snow, the reservoirs play the chicken game tying to figure out how much they can release to safely keep water through the summer months. If they release too much and the inflows stop then we don't have enough water, keep too much and it could spill over.

I live nearby Folsom Damn and it's about 66% full and they have opened 4 of their gates and releasing about 20k CFS, some of the days the inflow was about 30k CFS

Some predictions is that the sky areas have enough snow to operate through June, that is if we don't have a hot spell.

[gman5250]

Out my kitchen window, looking at Crowley Lake...under four feet of snow. This lake is the head water for Los Angeles water.

All of this land is open range cattle grazing, leased from Los Angeles Department of Water & Power. Last year, LADWP decided that the ranchers would no longer be able to use natural run off to water their cattle, launching a firestorm (pun intended) between Mono County and LADWP.

With this volume of snow, the natural runoff will overwhelm the LA Aqueduct system that diverts Eastern Sierra water. I'm not certain what contingency LADWP has for this season, but I will assume they will simply divert water directly to the ocean, much the same as the Sacramento River and Central Valley has seen over the last decade.

Daveroo mentioned the environmental intervention policies that are the prime contributors to the fire abatement mis-magement. Last summer we had a local fire break out, resulting from a crash of a LADWP drone which was monitoring the cattle ranchers who would normally divert water through the meadows. The water eventually finds it's way into Crowley Lake anyway, but LADWP counts the water that the cattle actually drink as a net loss.

Two years ago, during peak runoff McGee Creek, one of the feeder streams to Lake Crowley over ran it's banks for a number of weeks. Crews were working furiously with heavy equipment to trench the water out to diversion channels. This year will be the same.

Without waxing "political", I would offer my observation that the entire debacle on the West Slope and over here in cattle country, is a source of consternation that is elevating to levels which will inevitably result in open defiance of policies, which are not law.

I am confident that I could write a thesis on this particular subject, but will not...at least on this venue.

[Daveroo]

Hey Gman,first off,i stole yer pic for my desktop,thank you very much,and i had no idea that the socal water theft that far north in that area.after they drained the Owens Valley they had to go farther north i guess.starts at Oroville (Thermolito after bay)in the north valley,i had a friend who was born and raised in socal,she believed that there water came only from the Colorado river and natural springs throughout the valley..said i was a liar,she came north to see some of her family,during the middle of the last drought and her family were complaining to her that she was stealing all of our water and they were waisting it washing cars when we couldnt wash a car or water our lawns..she got so md at them she refused to ever speak to them again..lol..i just found it amusing.