The sky is falling- on Friday - maybe

[srgalahad]

"NASA's Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite, or UARS, is expected to re-enter Earth's atmosphere in late September or early October 2011, almost six years after the end of a productive scientific life. Although the spacecraft will break into pieces during re-entry, not all of it will burn up in the atmosphere."

http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/uars/index.html

Most recent update is at the top of the linked page

:running::running::running:

[Terry]

I heard this morning that they have narrowed the window to Thursday through Saturday. Put your hard hat on!!!

[IFlySWA]

NASA is now saying that the odds of the satellite hitting a person are 1-in-3,200. If anyone needs me I'll be under my desk. :icon_lol:

Brian

[CG_1976]

In this case look out Yellowknife Im coming home:icon_lol::running:

[Dain Arns]

If it hits anything, I hope it hits the news reporter who is guilty of attempting to create mass hysteria with this un-newsworthy event. :salute:

[SpitXIV]

If it hits anything, I hope it hits the news reporter who is guilty of attempting to create mass hysteria with this un-newsworthy event. :salute:

Roger That! Must be a slow newsday.

[lazarus]

Or not so dumb. Its a big bird, and a couple of big chunks ( 100+kg or so at impact.) will hit the ground- orbital speed a bit over 7 klicks/sec As of now-4:11 ZULU, UARS is feet dry over S/W Eire, Bristol, S-S/w of london, Paris, its track is now S of milan N/E of Rome. Right over some pretty crowded realestate. Track in real time using Google Earth http://www.n2yo.com/?s=21701 And it heades S/E over Egypt and Sudan, then the Indian Ocean- so were good for another 60 minutes. Clear here tonight and I think we get a couple of passes on the west coast so I'm out to see if I can coax the Nextstar on to it just for drill.

[srgalahad]

If it hits anything, I hope it hits the news reporter who is guilty of attempting to create mass hysteria with this un-newsworthy event. :salute:

Reporter?? the source is NASA

There's no attempt, that I can see, to do anything other than provide information on the known/pending disposition of a rather significant piece of space hardware that is likely NOT going to be totally immolated on reentry. In fact, the information is publicized because "the public has a right to know" as every lawyer will proclaim if a hot piece of debris gets parked in some lame-brain's driveway and he gets burned trying to spirit it away so he can sell it on E-Bay.

The 1-in-3200 human risk estimate is not some newsroom guess, but is contained in the NASA Re-Entry and Risk Assessment Document (.pdf) linked on the NASA website above. As for it being un-newsworthy, it may be (and likely will not make it into most local papers until afterward) but the re-entry of any large object does interest a lot of people who have followed space programs, as well as probably some of those who may get to see a potentially spectacular fireball if conditions are right.

Of course, if it doesn't impact a major downtown area in the US odds are slim that CNN will even mention it.

[Wing_Z]

Google Earth http://www.n2yo.com/?s=21701
Great link... it just motored past my front door.
My goodness but it has a turn of speed: 91m orbital period.

[lazarus]

Over Zimbabwe now(6:07 ZULU), headed out for the Indian and Pacific ocean.Comming overhead Vancouver B.C. this pass(S/W to N/E, more over Lions Bay/Pemberton)- about 40 minutes. Scope's jacked into the lap top and tracking, should be able to image it (a blob of light, I expect) Amazing stuff that you can do now- only a few years ago imaging a spacecraft from the ground was the exclusive domain of goverment agencies. 6:42 ZULU- heads up Hilo- comming over the N/W end of the big island in a few minutes... 6:59 ZULU foiled by overcast right where the bird is! next time.

[Dain Arns]

Reporter?? the source is NASA

There's no attempt, that I can see, to do anything other than provide information on the known/pending disposition of a rather significant piece of space hardware that is likely NOT going to be totally immolated on reentry. In fact, the information is publicized because "the public has a right to know" as every lawyer will proclaim if a hot piece of debris gets parked in some lame-brain's driveway and he gets burned trying to spirit it away so he can sell it on E-Bay.

The 1-in-3200 human risk estimate is not some newsroom guess, but is contained in the NASA Re-Entry and Risk Assessment Document (.pdf) linked on the NASA website above. As for it being un-newsworthy, it may be (and likely will not make it into most local papers until afterward) but the re-entry of any large object does interest a lot of people who have followed space programs, as well as probably some of those who may get to see a potentially spectacular fireball if conditions are right.

Of course, if it doesn't impact a major downtown area in the US odds are slim that CNN will even mention it.

Easy there, Boss.
Fact is, the news media has been over-hyping this re-entry event for the past few days. Lucky for you, you must have missed it.
If you had seen the coverage, then you would have clearly understood the context of my comment made, Sir. :salute:
Obviously, SpitXIV already understands, he's seen enough of the silliness as well. :icon_lol:

Here's some other facts.
The Coulmbia disaster, God rest their souls, was a much larger object that re-entered, broke up over a populated area, and resulted in no casualties on the ground.
Experts have also commented even with the 1-3200 number (which is the standard risk number NASA has used for years), you have a better chance at getting hit from lightning, or a part falling off a plane, than from a small piece of this satellite.
It still has a greater chance of hitting an ocean than land.
Oh, and if a flaming hot piece does fall in your driveway, it's officially US government property, and can't be sold on eBay. Sorry! :wavey: (Dunno how that would work in Canada tho)

EDIT: Knew I read this somewhere. BTW the 1-3200? That translates into a roughly 1-in-20 trillion chance for any particular person.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/44595042/ns/technology_and_science-space/#.TnmVatQQ4-c

[PRB]

So, as long as you're standing around in groups of less then 3200 people, you won't get hit by satellite bits...

[lazarus]

If you only listen to FOX news, the world has ended 46 times since april...KRISPY KREEM IN RECIEVERSHIP!!!!! WORLD IS ENDING!!! BRACE FOR DONUTAGEDDON!!!!!!

[AckAck]

Um...if the odds are 1 in 3,200 that you will get hit by a piece of this satellite, that would indicate that almost 100,000 people in the US will get hit by a piece of the satellite...

[AckAck]

Oh, wait - 1:3,200 it will hit ANYONE. That's different. That means 1:22,300,000,000,000 chance it will hit me... Carry on.

[nigel richards]

I generally avoid politics and specifically politicians, like the plague!

But maybe once, just this once, this NASA rogue satellite might be destined for the head of one of these imbeciles!

edit: I just heard the news that bits are most likely bound for Greece.
In view of my above remarks and the appalling state of Greece's economy...looks bang on target to me :jump:

[AndyG43]

edit: I just heard the news that bits are most likely bound for Greece.


They still have no idea where it is likely to come down, or even when; latest estimates are between 23:30 GMT tonight and 03:00 GMT tomorrow. So your news report may not be emtirely accurate. :icon_lol:

I fully expect the Daily Mail to have an editorial tomorrow blaming it on Brussels.

[Terry]

I generally avoid politics and specifically politicians, like the plague!

But maybe once, just this once, this NASA rogue satellite might be destined for the head of one of these imbeciles!

edit: I just heard the news that bits are most likely bound for Greece.
In view of my above remarks and the appalling state of Greece's economy...looks bang on target to me :jump:

Quick, chug a few down and you won't feel a thing! :guinness::guinness::guinness::guinness::guinness:

[Matt Wynn]

preliminary spread predictions is Southern Europe into Asia, thats quite a BIIIIIG area :icon_lol: regardless i will have my bino's and Camera set and ready just in case :salute: hopefully some photographers will get pics if it becomes visible... photography and spacecraft.... talk about hitting spot on with 2 of my hobbys :icon_lol:

[nigel richards]

Quick, chug a few down and you won't feel a thing! :guinness::guinness::guinness::guinness::guinness:


glug, glug, glug.....Ahhhhh!!!!!

That workeeeed wwwwwoonderrrssss!

Guinesss is good for you!!!

Thanks Terry.

[lazarus]

Latest estimates have the impact footprint over the pacific waay west of Chile. No light show unless some one gets some shots at sea. Big bloody blow comming on shore this afternoon anyway. First day of Fall, first winter storm.

[Matt Wynn]

yeah the satellite did some 'braking' yesterday if i recall, managed to slow itself down which is kinda like doing a de-orbit/Retrograde burn in the Rockwell STS, except in the Shuttle it faces so it's travelling backwards to it's orbital path, then several burns are performed, this slows the unit and as a result it starts to 'fall' and corrects then re-enters, this satellite somehow managed to slow itself, which has moved the re-entry point and the 'landing' location as a result... gotta love 'space stuff' as my father puts it :icon_lol: but we've still gotta ask... why was it up there? it's been idle since 2005, they could have brought it down sooner but it's propellant is gone, still at least it's more interesting news than the usual drivel :icon_lol:

[GT182]

This just in..... http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/44632366/ns/technology_and_science-space/?GT1=43001

Put your hardhats on......... really big ones. ;)

"There is a low probability any debris that survives re-entry will land in the United States, but the possibility cannot be discounted because of this changing rate of descent."

NASA expects about 26 large pieces of the UARS spacecraft to survive re-entry through Earth's atmosphere and reach the planet's surface. The biggest piece should weigh about 300 pounds (150 kilograms)."

[lazarus]

Its tumbling and grazing the top of the atomosphere, erratic deceleration rates. no way to get an accurate plot. I beleive UARS was not deorbited as there is not enough hydrazine left in the maneouvering system to perform a controlled deorbit, or it may have gone dead. So maybe we will get a light show after all!

[Matt Wynn]

would now be the time to say "i told ya!"

observers in the UK MIGHT (if it happens tonight) be treated to a streak across the sky from North -West to South-East across the sky according to BBC news.... :salute:

[srgalahad]

"As of 7 p.m. EDT on Sept. 23, 2011, the orbit of UARS was 90 miles by 95 miles (145 km by 150 km). Re-entry is expected between 11 p.m. Friday, Sept. 23, and 3 a.m., Sept. 24, Eastern Daylight Time (3 a.m. to 7 a.m. GMT). During that time period, the satellite will be passing over Canada, Africa and Australia, as well as vast areas of the Pacific, Atlantic and Indian oceans. The risk to public safety is very remote."
http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/uars/index.html

The n2yo.com server is so overloaded that it's been difficult to access for the last 48 hours so track information is .. pffft

Maybe I'll stay up since it's clear and warm tonight if I can get any track data

[lazarus]

You can all come out now. A report on the 23:00PDT news states that UARS re-entered over Canada. No other data- it was a news broadcast; after all- no track data. But this is a country with a whole lotta not much in it. If it came down over Ottawa...well; even more so. We know it did not hit B.C, as nothing falling out of the sky could miss Christy Clarks ego!