Major Japan Earthquake! [Archive]

W. Bleddyn

March 11th, 2011, 00:57

Now the warnings include Canadian and US west coast as well. Some of the Pacific Islands in the path are lower then the height of the wave so they won't fare well. I have two friends in Guam who met and married while in the service and decided to stay on there as civvies. My thoughts are with them and anyone else in the path of this.

**edit - man Wiki people are fast. I looked up that Sendai Airport that we keep seeing flooded and the wiki entry already mentions this in the airport's history.

On a hopefully bright side Taiwan has passed the ETA of the wave some time ago with no discernible impact. We can hope that means it is dissipating faster then expected.

Rami

March 11th, 2011, 02:15

They are really copping a bashing over there at the moment...Japan's turn this time...who's next...gulp.

This is one of the unfortunate consequences of living on the "ring of fire." It's plate tectonics.

http://geography.about.com/cs/earthquakes/a/ringoffire.htm

boxcar

March 11th, 2011, 03:36

.
Midway Island reported an 8 footer. Hawaii to know within a half hour or so.
There is at least one nuke power plant in Japan that is presently unable to pump cooling water... major bad.

One day this will happen off of our Oregon coast. We're due.

.

igacci

March 11th, 2011, 04:31

I'm stack in a McDnald's on my way home. It seems I have to spend a night here.

Tokyo is genarally OK.
Commuter trains are all stopped and lots of people are wandering on the street to seek somewhere to spend a night in a warm environment.

There are town-scale blackout in some metropolitan area and suberbs of Tokyo.
Shops are closing earlier than usual.

Airport is closing.
Traficcs are jammed.

Situation is becoming far worse in northan part of Japan.
There are still large afterquakes continues.
There are reports that relatively old buildings are collapsed .
Never-seen-before scale tsunamis are hitting, swallowing cars and houses with people.
There are a few tens of confirmed casualities and numers of people are missing.

There are a lot of earth quakes every year, but this one was the first that I felt scared and I might have been killed.

Dear friend simmers, plz keep your fingers crossed for us, especially in need of immediate help.

Ragerds

Daisuke

grunau_baby

March 11th, 2011, 04:42

Keeping my fingers crossed for the people involved. Even though Japan seems to be kind of used to earthquakes, this is so much worse! I am shocked!

Alex

aeromed202

March 11th, 2011, 04:45

What a disaster. Imagine how much worse it would be without the specially constructed buildings. The ring has been active recently and I fear for California, it's been too quiet there.

They're crossed Daisuke!

Maarten -

March 11th, 2011, 05:20

My thoughts and best vibes for their safety go out to all people concerned. My heart goes out to all affected by this immense disaster.

Please good care of yourselves and others,
Maarten

paiken

March 11th, 2011, 05:32

My thoughts go out to the people of Japan. 8.9 on the Richter scale is massive. To quote from the USGS website on how the scale is measured...
"On the Richter Scale, magnitude is expressed in whole numbers and decimal fractions. For example, a magnitude 5.3 might be computed for a moderate earthquake, and a strong earthquake might be rated as magnitude 6.3. Because of the logarithmic basis of the scale, each whole number increase in magnitude represents a tenfold increase in measured amplitude; as an estimate of energy, each whole number step in the magnitude scale corresponds to the release of about 31 times more energy than the amount associated with the preceding whole number value."
I emphasised the part in red so you could get a feel for just how massive this quake is. Wow.

olaf1924

March 11th, 2011, 06:52

The damage looks like the movie 2012 but it is real this time.

CH_OldZeke

March 11th, 2011, 07:04

Absolutly terrifying to watch. My heart goes out to all affected.

CG_1976

March 11th, 2011, 07:17

My thoughts and prays are with all involved with this tragic event. I have been just informed that the Aleutian islands has just been hit by a a small tsunami.

Matt Wynn

March 11th, 2011, 07:28

bad day indeed... my thoughts go out to everyone affected by this quake and tsunami... scary thing is Lunar Perigee isn't till march 18th (Point where it's closest to earth and exerts the most gravitational pull on our planet) that may cause some bad weather or worse...

again my thoughts and prayers to all it has affected...

Crusader

March 11th, 2011, 10:52

My thoughts go out to the Japanese people . This is absolutely a devastating tragedy . Here is hope for a smooth and safe rebuild of your country . I was stationed in Japan in 1966(Iwakuni) and although we never experienced a quake we were always very vigilant and had emergency plans in case it did happen .

Rich

warchild

March 11th, 2011, 12:25

If it wasnt for Japans continued vigilance for all these decades, the death count could have been magnitudes worse. The tsunami will also impact borneo,the Philippines, australia, new zealand, the US, and south america to various lesser degrees.. I'll be keeping a special place in my heart for all the victims of this disaster..
Pam

boxcar

March 11th, 2011, 12:39

.
Aftermath felt strongly here stateside as well: Crescent City, California's harbor effectively destroyed by an 8+ foot tsunami wave not long ago:

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2011/03/11/national/main20042243.shtml?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+CBSNewsPCAnswer+%28PC+Answer% 3A+CBSNews.com%29

5 swept out to sea, one still missing (a man who went down to the docks to photograph the tsunami's arrival).

My heart & thoughts go out to the many people affected & who will be affected in the coming hours..

rayrey10

March 11th, 2011, 14:15

I saw it on the news this morning, and thank goodness for technology, I was able to text my son who is stationed in Iwakuni and got an immediate reply from him that he was fine. The base is far from the center of the earthquake. He said they were just waiting for word on what their part of the relief effort was going to be.

My thoughts and payers go out for the people of Japan!

pilottj

March 11th, 2011, 15:14

I lived in Nagoya, Japan in the early 90s and was there when the Kobe earthquake hit. Nagoya is some distance from the Kobe area but I felt it very well. Our apartment had the living area on one end and my bedroom was on the other end. It was early in the morning and I was starting to wake up, I heard the dishes rattling in kitchen, then things rattling in the hall and my case of models rattling, then my bed, and away it went...it was very eerie, like a wave. Later that year our school visited the Kobe area as part of a relief team, the devistation was too hard to describe. I can only imagine what this will look like when the dust starts to settle.

TJ

warchild

March 11th, 2011, 15:39

I'm looking for family members in japan of Nobuaki Takahashi ( Takahashi Nobuaki ) and tricia Okamura. Both are professors at Eastern Carolina university and friends of a very dear friend.. Please if someone can give me a clue over the next day or so, i would greatly appreciate it.. woulf give more data but thats all i have to go on besides the fact that they cant be found or contacted at this time, which to me means they're in northeastern Japan somewhere..
Thanks..
Pam

srgalahad

March 11th, 2011, 17:27

Google has activated their People Finder app

For Pam, or anyone else who seeks/has contact with people at risk in Japan, go here:

http://www.google.com/crisisresponse/japanquake2011.html

and click the appropriate link in the box

(I generally don't have much love for Google, but this is one of their redeeming values)

Roger

March 11th, 2011, 17:40

Dreadful...I have no words since watching the helicopter footage of the tsunami destroying the coastline and zooming in on individual pedestrians and drivers without knowing if they survived.

warchild

March 11th, 2011, 17:47

very awesome.. thanks SrG.. much appreciated

Kiwikat

March 11th, 2011, 18:25

Dreadful...I have no words since watching the helicopter footage of the tsunami destroying the coastline and zooming in on individual pedestrians and drivers without knowing if they survived.

Same here. It felt so wrong watching it. I had goosebumps and felt sick to my stomach. I fear the worst for the death toll. That was a bad quake.

Allen

March 11th, 2011, 22:03

It dosn't sound good.... The have an radioactive material leak at a nuke plant and one of the cores maybe melting down. Meltdown is not conformed.

http://english.kyodonews.jp/news/2011/03/76992.html

deathfromafar

March 11th, 2011, 22:21

There are multiple reports that Cesium has been detected outside of the plant. If this is true, that is not a good sign.

wombat666

March 11th, 2011, 23:03

There are multiple reports that Cesium has been detected outside of the plant. If this is true, that is not a good sign.

As usual, the 'Sensationalist Media' have screwed up again.

First and foremost, evacuation of citizens in proximity to Nuclear Power Facilities is STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURE.
Japan has the most advanced and comprehensive Earthquake disaster and warning system in place of ANY nation on the planet due to their past experiences, which includes the possible damage to Nuclear Facilities.
Of the four reactors in the effected plant all have shut down automatically, as is standard procedure in Japan.
One (as in '1') reactor has a problem with raised temperatures as the diesel backup generator for its water cooling has shut down due to site flooding.
As of 17:50 AEDST this has been contained.
'Meltdown' will not take place.

The 'Media Person' radiation leakage reporting raised the subject with a specialist from the Nuclear Energy Environment and Safety Group (we do have an independent one here in Oz) only to be told that if one were to stand at the gates of this facility for fifty (as in '50') days the radiation exposure would be below the level of a chest X-ray.

Japan has a first class disaster response team in the Nuclear Energy field, their primary function is to ensure suppression of ANY plant damage, which has been assisted (so I believe) by a swiftly deployed support team from the US.
These plants will take months to come back on line, primarily due to water damaged infrastructure, but the prospects of the much touted 'Nuclear Disaster' by the 'Media' have been all but eliminated.

At this point in time, after shocks are expected to cause greater problems, as they will continue, diminishing in scale of course, but that scale is proportionate, so the next is expected to be in the high 7 range, followed by lower numbers in the 7's and so on down through the entire Richter scale.
It appears set to be an ongoing and perhaps even worse situation, given the vast number of homeless and missing.

A footnote:
In a sad twist of fate, a Japanese S&R team working in Christchurch (NZ) for the past two weeks have been recalled to their homeland to face the same task on a much larger scale.

:medals:

deathfromafar

March 12th, 2011, 00:02

A local group of 50 American Nuclear Engineer Specialists from the GE/Hitachi Facility at Castle Hayne, North Carolina were on site at Fukushima Daiichi at the time of the Earthquake & subsequent tsunami impact. The lead engineers reported by phone to local media that the tsunami flooding has completely submerged the diesel generators at the plant and that those units are unrecoverable and that only the emergency backup pumps(battery powered) were available. Also, most of the pump intakes are fouled by mud and debris from the floods.

They also stated as fact that both Cesium and Iodine were detected outside of the containment protected area and that control room #1 was seriously contaminated. They continued to say that it is believed that a portion of #1 reactor's fuel was fully exposed due to low water coolant levels and that those fuel segments and perhaps more are believed to have melted down. They indicated that the full extent of the damage is not fully known at this time and that the crisis may not be over as the Chief Japanese Nuclear Authorities are concerned that any portion of the fuel that may have melted and may now be out of range of the Boron Control Rod effectiveness and thus at risk of uncontrolled reaction & heat/pressure generation.

They stressed it is too early to claim both the extent of the damage or that all danger has subsided.

wombat666

March 12th, 2011, 00:10

deathfromafar

March 12th, 2011, 00:10

UPDATE: Major Explosion has occurred at the Fukushima Nuclear Plant.
Video: Watch frames at 0:47 in the video. Not sure what the hell blew but some reports say the explosion happened at 0800GMT

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pg4uogOEUrU

Edit, CNN is now reporting the explosion as well. Also take note at frames 0:49 to 0:52, it appears that a large black roof section was blown up into the air and back down.

http://www.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/asiapcf/03/12/japan.nuclear/

Allen

March 12th, 2011, 00:43

"Public broadcaster NHK and Jiji report the outer structure of the building that houses the reactor has blown off."

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2011/03/12/3162450.htm?section=world

deathfromafar

March 12th, 2011, 01:38

This doesn't look good. Since the video surfaced, many news reports are saying that reactor #1 building was destroyed and that the containment is breached. The Japanese Govt confirms the explosion but says it does not know further details at this time. The IAEA is now involved in the crisis. Some nuclear engineers have weighed in on TV discussions here and seemed to agree that the video showed the containment structure of reactor #1 being destroyed in the explosion and that the roof is clearly seen being blown off.

"The U.N. nuclear watchdog said it is aware of media reports of an explosion on Saturday at Japan’s Fukushima No.1 nuclear power plant and is urgently seeking information from the country’s authorities.
Current Font Size:

An official at the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the Vienna-based U.N. atom body, gave no further details.

Jiji news agency said there had been an explosion at the stricken 40-year-old Daiichi 1 reactor and TV footage showed vapor rising from the plant, which lies 240 km (150 miles) north of Tokyo.

Japanese media said an explosion blew the roof off the reactor, raising fears of a disastrous meltdown at a nuclear plant damaged in the massive earthquake that hit Japan.

“We are aware of the media reports and we are urgently seeking further information,” the IAEA official told Reuters.

The blast came as plant operator Tokyo Electric Power Co (Tepco) worked desperately to reduce pressures in the core of the reactor that, if not contained, could lead to a release of radiation into the atmosphere.

Nuclear expert Mark Hibbs of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace said an explosion would be a “physical shock” to the plant that could increase the danger of a breach of the containment and of radioactivity getting out.

“We don’t have any information from inside the plant. That is the problem in this case,” he said.

“If it melts down the probability that there would be a breach or that radiation would get outside of the plant because of weakness of the structure of the plant ... is much greater,” Hibbs said.

Explosion confirmed

Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Yukio Edano confirmed on Saturday there has been an explosion and radiation leakage at the plant. "

Stratobat

March 12th, 2011, 01:44

Just heard on the radio that people in the general area have been told to stay indoors.

Regards,
Stratobat

deathfromafar

March 12th, 2011, 02:19

Confirmed, the containment of Reactor #1 was destroyed in the blast

Photos:
3306833069

Rami

March 12th, 2011, 02:30

My thoughts and prayers go out to all those in Japan or who have family there. Prayers also go to past earthquake victims of th last couple of years, including Chile and New Zealand.

Prayers also go out to those close to or who work in those nuclear reactor sites.

igacci

March 12th, 2011, 03:25

Right now, the gov spokesperson told that the nuclear reactor is not in critical situation (though, there is low level leak of radio-active material.)

The video of the building blown off was casused by an explosion of leaked hydrogen mixed with atmospheric oxygen, according to the spokesperson said.
The cause of hydrogen leak is not specified yet.

Residents within the 20km radius (13 miles?) from the nuclear plant is evacuating just to be safe.
Engineers and JDF's mechanics are now trying to settle down the situation.
The utomost-worst case is avoided for the mean time.

Regards

Daisuke

Francois

March 12th, 2011, 03:59

I know officials said 'not to worry' when Chernobyl was ablaze.... just sayin' :wavey:

PRB

March 12th, 2011, 05:12

This is how the news media, trying to disseminate information, sometimes makes things worse. They have a “nuclear expert” on the phone, commenting on the explosion. He says: “As I understand it, this explosion was caused by gas inside the core, but the containment is made of steel and concrete and was not breeched, so (blah, blah, blah…” Of course, given that “the containment” contains (hopefully) “the core”, that statement is contradictory and makes no sense, and at best can only cause confusion.
<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o:p></o:p>
Then he was asked about the Japanese government’s decision to start handing out iodine. He answer best I can recall, was: “Umm, well, iodine is used to, in terms of, for helping to, um, it’s to help, radiation, for to help in eliminate, in terms of, it’s better for, and in terms of exposure, for the radiation.”
<o:p></o:p>
You gotta love experts, in terms of answers to questions.

Ferry_vO

March 12th, 2011, 05:25

Impressive set of photos over at Boston.com's The Big Picture:

http://www.boston.com/bigpicture/2011/03/massive_earthquake_hits_japan.html

txnetcop

March 12th, 2011, 05:46

I have a retired college professor friend and his family that lives near that nuclear facility and have not been able to get in touch with him by phone or SKYPE...worried!
Ted

Francois

March 12th, 2011, 05:57

Ted, he's probably on the move. I too have some friends in Japan (Tokyo and Nakayima areas) and haven't had replies. I guess most people are busy with other things right now.. but yes, it does make you worried.

Allen

March 12th, 2011, 06:54

Had to get some sleep. I see it did not go full meltdown.

http://i.imgur.com/CckjP.jpg

http://i.imgur.com/Oj4kg.png

http://i.imgur.com/fYKKN.png

deathfromafar

March 12th, 2011, 13:22

Japan's NSA has confirmed the partial meltdown of the reactor and that initial reports are, 1 fatality and 3 acute radiation exposure injuries. The latest official reports are that engineers are pumping sea water and boric acid into the reactor vessel and that the total process could take 10 days to cool the fuel in the damaged core to a static safety state.

Looking at the damage photos, my immediate concern is that with an explosion of that magnitude which instantly disintegrated thousands of tons of steel and concrete, how much damage has occurred to the cooling/exchanger piping systems and valves/valve actuators which may inhibit the ability to pump in coolant? In scenario, it is possible for the fuel to melt and do so out of proximity of the control rod range of effectiveness. If that occurs, it is quite possible for further meltdown and core exposure which would immediately react to open atmosphere and begin to burn & release massive amounts of radioactive particles/gas.

Hopefully, the damage is not severe enough to prevent the water & boric acid being added and the 10 day window for permanent cooldown can be met.

It's still too early to call where/how this situation will go. We all hope for the best as the situation and future for the people of Japan is very sadly & already bleak.

Allen

March 12th, 2011, 13:28

Well if this is the meltdown, lets hope it better than 3 Mile and pray it never close to Chernobyl.

Edit: Damitsomuch.....

"The emergency cooling system is no longer functioning at the No.3 reactor at Tokyo Electric Power Co's Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power facility"

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/03/12/japan-quake-nuclear-cooling-idUSLHE7EB02D20110312

Dangerousdave26

March 12th, 2011, 19:22

Looks like at this point they are assuming they had a meltdown in Reactor 1 and they believe the same will happen to reactor 3.

This is looking like it will be far worse than any of the past incidents.

W. Bleddyn

March 12th, 2011, 22:06

I know this is irrelevant in the circumstance and I would not bother posting this on a non-flight forum, but I think people here will find this sad.

http://media.oregonlive.com/oregonian/photo/2011/03/9377692-essay.jpg
https://lh4.googleusercontent.com/-YkyQsVXBRgc/TXutaFOMx8I/AAAAAAAATAE/-0hMcq-bq1Y/s400/aj9f.bmphttps://lh6.googleusercontent.com/-egrGyKLw-2Y/TXutfbipaiI/AAAAAAAATAM/eerQYXgX9ts/s400/aj9g.bmp
https://lh4.googleusercontent.com/-hEO51L08Hds/TXutdAyYVyI/AAAAAAAATAI/ajnaszY7JI8/s400/aj9e.bmp

These are images of Matsushima Air Field, which besides obviously being an active base with a collection of vintage aircraft, is also the home to the Blue Impulse display team. No word on their planes being present or damaged.

Like I said, small potatoes compared to meltdowns and thousands of people still missing but it is a small sadness in it's own way.

Ickie

March 13th, 2011, 06:24

They just said on CNN that the whole Island of Japan moved 6-8 even 10 feet, I think this may be a big problem with GPS and other nav equipment.

paiken

March 13th, 2011, 06:59

It's not the equipment...when the plate moved (causing the earthquake) it actually shifted the whole area 8 to 10 feet. I heard last night that the Indonesian earthquake shifted the area 20 meters (60 ft). That's why the continents drift. In about 2 million years Los Angeles and San Francisco will be right next to each other.

boxcar

March 13th, 2011, 07:03

.
Can you just imagine? http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-12725646

Apparently 2 nuclear cores have melted at the power plants. We are in trouble from this here on the left coast, count on it.

Am thinking there is presently many more deaths from this quake & it's aftermath than from both atomic weapons in '45.

My heart is continually going out to the Japanese people right now. We may well be next here, being due for the big one.

.

.

Dangerousdave26

March 13th, 2011, 07:26

We may well be next here, being due for the big one.

Yes you well could be its one of those undeniable truths in life. If you don't want to experience it soon or sooner is the time to leave.

But where else would one go? All areas have their own natural disasters that must be dealt with.

On another note they said the shifted 4 inches on its axis as a result of the earthquake.

pilottj

March 13th, 2011, 08:44

Chile, New Zealand, now Japan. The West Coast could very well be next, as all these places are figuratively on the four corners of the ring of fire. Three of those 'corners' have shifted which will put that much more pressure on the fourth.

over 6000 died in the Kobe earthquake, I fear this one will far surpass that one.

W. Bleddyn

March 13th, 2011, 08:49

The city I live in, Richmond BC, is actually below sea level and surrounded by dykes to keep the water out. Yeah... not looking forward to a quake in the PNW region.

wombat666

March 13th, 2011, 09:49

Of course, be a pragmatic person, I was considering the effect the resulting collapse of the Japanese Economy will have around the planet.
Not exactly a thought at the forefont of my mind right now, but looking at the 'Big Picture' the future for the Japanese People is bleak.
:kilroy:

wiltzei

March 13th, 2011, 12:58

Before & after images. (http://www.abc.net.au/news/events/japan-quake-2011/beforeafter.htm) Move your mouse across the images.

stiz

March 13th, 2011, 14:23

"Naoto Takeuchi, chief of Miyagi prefecture's police force, said: "The death toll is almost certain to rise above 10,000." :frown:

deathfromafar

March 13th, 2011, 20:48

Fukushima 1 Unit 3 Exploded a couple of hours ago.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iL4bhit7Sc8

Allen

March 13th, 2011, 21:58

It was know it was to happen. Its just like what happen to Fukushima 1 Unit 1.

wombat666

March 13th, 2011, 22:58

"A volcano in south-western Japan has erupted after nearly two weeks of relative silence, sending ash and rocks up to four kilometres into the air, a local official said.
It was not immediately clear if the eruption was a direct result of the massive 8.9-magnitude earthquake that rocked northern areas on Friday, unleashing a fierce tsunami and sparking fears that more than 10,000 may have been killed.
The 1,421-metre Shinmoedake volcano in the Kirishima range saw its first major eruption for 52 years in January.
There had not been any major activity at the site since March 1.
Authorities have maintained a volcano warning at a level of three out of five, restricting access to the entire mountain.
In April last year, the eruption of the Eyjafjoell volcano in Iceland dispersed a vast cloud of ash, triggering a huge shutdown of airspace that affected more than 100,000 flights and 8 million passengers."

The people of Japan must be wondering why?
This is adding insult to injury!

:kilroy:

deathfromafar

March 13th, 2011, 23:26

According to several reports, this blast was much more powerful than the first one and appears to have severely deformed to reactor vessel. Additional reports indicate that the vessel damage is such that they are unable to get any water inside of it(flowing through) and are now flooding the building with sea water in an attempt to cool the vessel. The steam production from this is very high and reportedly contains Cesium & Iodine particulate matter(a very strong indication that a fission reaction is still ongoing despite the reactor SCRAM and cooling attempts). I've heard two retired Nuclear Engineers state that their fear is if the fuel in Fukushima 1 Unit 3(or unit 1) melts to what is known as an uncontrollable geometry, no amount of water will be able to cool the fuel into a static(cold) state. The consequences of such an event are obvious.

I want to point out that this event has gone from a Level 3 Incident classification to a Level 4 Accident in less than 24 hours. It is very likely that this has now changed to a Level 5 or possibly Level 6 Accident but since accurate assessment takes time, it may be 12 to 24 hours before that declaration is made or not.

There is a lot of confusion & mixed reporting coming out of this and adding to the confusion are conflicting reports from different agencies/entities within the Japanese Govt. Getting an accurate picture & information at this point is very difficult.

My Consulting Company has two former US Army NBC Specialists who have a wealth of experience & training background including further training & experience within both the US DOE/NRC and two Nuclear Utilities regarding Safety, Risk Assessment/Planning, & Contamination/Decontamination. Both of them are actively plugged in as consultants directly to business & Govt entities in Japan(pro bono I may add).

If I hear anything, I will try to pass it along.

(Edit), Major news outlets are reporting that Gamma Sensors on the USS Ronald Reagan 160 miles offshore have picked up slightly elevated levels of radiation. The Microsievert (µSv) count per hour on the Reagan was equivalent 1 month's rate of normal background count accumulation.

kilo delta

March 14th, 2011, 04:32

Not looking good. Is the risk of damage at Chernobyl proportions or are modern safety measures more capable of containing any major radioactive leaks?

stiz

March 14th, 2011, 09:11

Not looking good. Is the risk of damage at Chernobyl proportions or are modern safety measures more capable of containing any major radioactive leaks?

did chernobly even have a containment system around it??

jhefner

March 14th, 2011, 09:12

Not looking good. Is the risk of damage at Chernobyl proportions or are modern safety measures more capable of containing any major radioactive leaks?

What made the Chernobyl accident so bad was (1) it did not have a containment building and (2) the reactor itself was graphite moderated; the Japanese reactor is a water moderated Westinghouse design. (Both use water for cooling.)

The water moderated reactors would slow down when the water level dropped. But a graphite moderated reactor could instead run away; the reactor power would continue to climb, which would cause the water to boil even more; what finally happened was a BLEVE event (steam explosion) that blew the top off of the reactor, followed by a second explosion caused by a nuclear excusion. That, and the burning graphite in the reactor remains caused the huge release of radiation.

What they are trying to do in Japan right now is cool down the remains of the reactor internals before it compromises the reactor shell. If the shell is compromised, the remaining liquid in the reactor could cause a steam explosion and a release of radioactive steam; the hot core could also melt it's way into the ground and get into the water table.

Neither event would be good; but no where as devestating a release of radioactive material as Chernobyl was. It was the smoke from the burning radioactive graphite fire for two weeks after the explosion that made Chernobyl so bad. Just how bad would depend on the direction and speed the wind is blowing.

kilo delta

March 14th, 2011, 09:35

What made the Chernobyl accident so bad was (1) it did not have a containment building and (2) the reactor itself was graphite moderated; the Japanese reactor is a water moderated Westinghouse design. (Both use water for cooling.)

The water moderated reactors would slow down when the water level dropped. But a graphite moderated reactor could instead run away; the reactor power would continue to climb, which would cause the water to boil even more; what finally happened was a BLEVE event (steam explosion) that blew the top off of the reactor, followed by a second explosion caused by a nuclear excusion. That, and the burning graphite in the reactor remains caused the huge release of radiation.

What they are trying to do in Japan right now is cool down the remains of the reactor internals before it compromises the reactor shell. If the shell is compromised, the remaining liquid in the reactor could cause a steam explosion and a release of radioactive steam; the hot core could also melt it's way into the ground and get into the water table.

Neither event would be good; but no where as devestating a release of radioactive material as Chernobyl was. It was the smoke from the burning radioactive graphite fire for two weeks after the explosion that made Chernobyl so bad. Just how bad would depend on the direction and speed the wind is blowing.

Thanks for the explanation. :salute: :)

jhefner

March 14th, 2011, 12:58

If anyone in the USA at least is worried about nuclear fallout all the way from Japan; please let me point out that the Hydrogen bombs we exploded in the Pacific Atolls released far more radiation than this plant ever could. (The Chernobyl disaster released 100 to 1000 times less radioactivity than nuclear weapons testing (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) during the 1950s and 1960s.)

Japan will depend on the amount released and the speed and direction of the prevailing winds. Four hundred times more radioactive material was released by Chernobyl than had been by the atomic bombing (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atomic_bombings_of_Hiroshima_and_Nagasaki) of Hiroshima (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hiroshima). Once again, no matter what happens, this plant will not be another Chernobyl.

http://tvnz.co.nz/world-news/japan-quake-another-chernobyl-unlikely-4061904

-James

W. Bleddyn

March 14th, 2011, 15:29

If anyone in the USA at least is worried about nuclear fallout all the way from Japan; please let me point out that the Hydrogen bombs we exploded in the Pacific Atolls released far more radiation than this plant ever could.

That one detonation is nothing. The US has detonated close to 1000 nukes on their own soil.

This starts off slow.. but it is quite eye-opening.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I9lquok4Pdk

deathfromafar

March 14th, 2011, 15:43

Regarding Fukushima 1, Unit 3, not sure how well known this information is but Unit 3 is fueled with MOX Fuel which is a combination of Uranium and Plutonium Oxide. A Meltdown & atmospheric release from this type of core presents a greater degree of risks.

Still, information is sketchy and each time I hear the lead agencies speak, I hear conflicting information and they seem to be slowly admitting the situation is far worse than originally claimed.
Equally as bothersome is the fact that there has been significant hindrance in getting International Inspectors & Measurement Teams in to get a better picture of what is going on. That plus many other clues are not at all encouraging.

Update: New wires are just reporting an explosion at Unit 2. No further details.

http://abcnews.go.com/International/japan-earthquake-reactor-fukushima-nuclear-plant-explodes/story?id=13131123

Francois

March 14th, 2011, 23:59

no matter what happens, this plant will not be another Chernobyl.

Yeah, right ........ :blind:

roger-wilco-66

March 15th, 2011, 05:06

What made the Chernobyl accident so bad was (1) it did not have a containment building and (2) the reactor itself was graphite moderated; the Japanese reactor is a water moderated Westinghouse design. (Both use water for cooling.)
[...]

From my understanding, an aspect that also contributed to the Chernobyl accident was an intrinsic design-problem of the moderated area of the RBMK reactor core, which left the bottom of the core unmoderated by graphite because there are no graphite packages in that area. The moderation here is done by the light water itself and its volume of flow.
Also the tips of the controlrods were critical, which were made of graphite and had the problem that they initially sped up the nuclear processes when inserted (now that was a major design flaw). This was one factor that contributed to the catastrophic accident there. By the way, the aforementioned BLEVE event (steam explosion) in Chernobyl was gigantic, it lifted the top of the reactor, which weighed over 1000 tons and was 3meter x 17meter in size, up in the air like nothing and flipped it on it's back, so it came to rest on the reactor vessel structure up side down (can be seen on images, with its destroyed fuel, cooling and control tubes sticking out).

I'm no expert by all means, but after reading a lot about the designs of nuclear reactors I come to believe that reactors that rely on the moderation by light water generally have a serious security problem when faced with system failures in the primary water circulation. It's like walking on a knifes edge.

What worries me most in Fukushima is the possibility of breaches in the continment systems, the MOX fuel and in further addition the situation of the over 200 tons of spent fuel rods that are stored in pools in the reactor buildings, that also need heavy cooling. The system of at least one of the pools seems to have failed. As far as I know these pools are ___outside__ the containment structure and have no biological shield.

Oh well. I dearly hope they get it under control, but I fear the worst.

Mark

Francois

March 15th, 2011, 05:09

Latest news is that they are (or already have) retreating all staff from the premises (those that are still alive).. which means it is no loner controlled, and hence out of control.

We may all keep hoping things 'will be alright'..... but lets face it, they are not.

deathfromafar

March 15th, 2011, 06:53

Myself and three other gentlemen have been working in shifts trying to both supply information and obtain it at the same time. The way many reports coming out of Fukushima have shaped up, it's safe to say that the Japanese Authorities are not being very forthcoming up to now and the security lockdown of the site and information is not unlike what we saw 25 years ago from the Soviets. So we have scavenged as much information from credible second hand sources as possible and more and more, this looking like a worst case scenario. I too have heard the reports the plant has been evacuated but I would call those reports hard to confirm and there are other reports that there are a small number of plant workers and JSDF fighting the blazes. If this is the case then the situation is likely at the point of being a Level 7 Accident like Chernobyl but so far no official of the Japanese Government has declared this. Other Nuclear Agencies of France and Russia had previously indicated this event was more likely a Level 5 or 6 Accident rather than Level 4 claimed by the Government.

This is what I have solid information on. There is low level fallout being detected in Tokyo now and all foreign government embassies have been officially notified of the danger. The radiation measurement reports from in and around the plant are not good. Before now, the Government quoted figures that seemed way too low considering known/recorded comparisons to previous incidents and accidents. I have reports of the hourly doses on site being as high as 1 Sv and as high as 400 mSv per hour outside the plant perimeter(the latter figure now being reported by the Government). Now there is a no fly zone over the site that extends outwards to near the boundaries of the exclusion zone.

It's not encouraging news at all and more and more, the Government is coming around to admitting this may be headed towards a worst case scenario.

roger-wilco-66

March 15th, 2011, 07:10

DFA,

thanks for sharing your informations here!

kilo delta

March 15th, 2011, 07:23

DFA,

thanks for sharing your informations here!

Ditto.

Another question I have. Up until now the reactors are being cooled by sea water in a hastily set up manner. Is the contaminated sea water contained on site or is it being pumped back out to sea?

deathfromafar

March 15th, 2011, 07:50

Ditto.

Another question I have. Up until now the reactors are being cooled by sea water in a hastily set up manner. Is the contaminated sea water contained on site or is it being pumped back out to sea?

I've heard some reports that the discharge went back into the sea but no confirmation. Normal plant operations release discharge back into waterways/sea but that type of discharge is normally exchanger/turbine with minimal to no contamination. Most of the "hot radioactive" water is kept captive for storage/disposal either on site or shipped offsite. The "hot" steam releases under normal operations are usually short duration and the isotopes(very low level) in those are short lived and dispersed quickly.

In the Fukushima situation, being that the heat levels have been very high, it's likely a good bit of the water being pumped in is turning into steam which isn't good either as it can carry isotopes/particulate matter airborne for some distance. This steam/discharge though is without a doubt highly contaminated from byproducts caused by core heat/melting.

PS, I am NOT a Nuclear Expert but in my line of work & past work, I have been through a good bit of related classroom and practical training on the subject matter. I'm sure I have forgotten more than was taught to me! No question it is a very complex & serious business(Nuclear Energy & Nuclear related industry).

jhefner

March 15th, 2011, 11:11

Yeah, right ........ :blind:

Don't listen to me then; listen to these:

http://bravenewclimate.com/2011/03/13/fukushima-simple-explanation/

Just a reminder, to keep things in perspective:

* Earthquake and Tsunami -- 10,000(+?) dead, 1800(+?) wounded
* Fukushima Nuclear accident -- 1 dead, <50 wounded?

And this was after a major catastropic event; about the only thing I could think of that may have been worst would have been a direct hit by a jetliner or military aircraft. Granted, the worst is not over. But this is a teachable moment for nuclear power, just like the two space shuttle accidents, not a time to call for them to be shut down.

Life itself carries risk; increasingly, we as a society have become wimps when it comes to risk taking. Aviation and the world we live in was built upon the literal blood and sweat of our forefathers; now we believe everything has to carry zero risk.

What are the alternatives to nuclear power? Fossil generation, with it's emissions and the hazards of mining for coal, fracing for natural gas, or getting oil from deep water wells or the Middle East? Wind, with its unpredictability, spotty availability, and bird strikes by endangered species? Solar, with mining hazards in getting the materials used to build solar panels and it's spotty availability?

Hoover Dam could not be built today because of the environmental damage it caused to the Colorado River. And if you think hydro is risk-free, check this out:

http://www.boston.com/bigpicture/2009/09/the_sayanoshushenskaya_dam_acc.html

A zero risk society is one that achives nothing but a backward slide to the caveman era. The objective should be to minimize risk, not eliminate it altogether. But, in our current, lawsuite happy environment, that is no longer the case.

kilo delta

March 15th, 2011, 15:57

A fire has reportedly now broken out at reactor #4. Going from bad to worse.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-12754883

GT182

March 15th, 2011, 16:16

Worse is right. It's classified as a 6 now. 1 higher than Three Mile Island and 1 less than Chernobyl. Things do not look good.

What gets me is the Japanese authorities said there'd be no problems with the Nuc plants. I'm sure they knew something was wrong but kept it quiet as long as they dared.

deathfromafar

March 15th, 2011, 19:51

This just went out on Associated Press:

FUKUSHIMA, Japan – Japan suspended operations to prevent a stricken nuclear plant from melting down Wednesday after a surge in radiation made it too dangerous for workers to remain at the facility. Chief Cabinet Secretary Yukio Edano said work on dousing reactors with water was disrupted by the need to withdraw. "So the workers cannot carry out even minimal work at the plant now," Edano said. "Because of the radiation risk, we are on standby."

That is a very ominous sign. With all the overlapping reports today on fires and explosions at different buildings, it's been nearly impossible to get a clear picture of what is really going on.
If the full evacuation of personnel has happened, it is in all likelihood a runaway situation. If opinion matters at this point, I suspect things have or will soon escalate to a Level 7 accident.

My God, I hope I am wrong.

N2056

March 15th, 2011, 20:02

I have been watching these events closely as I actually do work in the field. The reason I have not gotten into this thread has a lot to do with weeding through the news reports for credible info before I say anything. A lot of what has been reported must be taken with a grain of salt, but I must admit that what is happening there is not good.

This is the site I monitor...http://ansnuclearcafe.org/

The reason I decided to post stems from news reports I saw tonight about people on the west coast of the USA (which is where I live) grabbing up Potassium Iodide.

Please do not take it without professional advice. It's not like taking aspirin.

deathfromafar

March 15th, 2011, 20:29

I agree N2056, the news reports are at times all over the place and it's pretty much impossible/not completely trustworthy. My NBC Specialist Advisers were getting direct feed from the JSDF and another credible Civilian Govt source there but as of 24 hours ago, those sources went quiet and we've been forced to move laterally to verify information. It's still a cluster-f over there and a lot of feet are stepping on each other trying to accomplish some kind of a good outcome.

So far, the people I've trusted on judgment have called this thing right in terms of making accurate predictions and stable probability calls as well. It's a terrible feeling when you realize you're right about something so bad.

Also regarding the Potassium Iodide, as said, it's nothing to fool with without direct medical advice. There is no need for people to panic on this side of the big pond. If any of that matter reaches us, it will be very low level with close to zero risk of acute exposure.

boxcar

March 16th, 2011, 03:35

.
Having posted this in 2 other international forums yesterday a.m., am also posting this here... my words.
.

"Regarding the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear complex, here's the real danger in this situation, people, so far as can be personally discerned in this moment. The spent nuclear fuel rods are stored in 40 to 45 foot deep pools of water to keep them cool. They are stored near the roofs on the top level of the reactor buildings... the roofs that have blown off... 3 out of 4 of them so far. While the spent fuel rods are not nearly as fissile as the regular fuel, it is quite hot. When the water levels drop to the point that the spent fuel is no longer being cooled, it will eventually catch fire. When that happens, we have what was mentioned in an earlier post of mine elsewhere: the mother of all dirty bombs. Even if the containment vessels of the main reactors are not breached (one likely has been breached thus far) then this reality alone would be responsible for the release of many, many tons of radioactive waste into the air & ocean. Decades worth of stored spent nuclear fuel. Please believe me, or, at the very least, check out this critical information to confirm what I am sharing here. This spent fuel fire problem is far, far worse than meltdowns of the reactor cores.

We are in for a very unpleasant ride. "

.

Worse yet: word is that reactor #3 was being fueled with an experimental fuel rod array containing plutonium. :-( According to news reports, it was being fueled with MOX, a controversial mixed oxides fuel rod, which includes, in addition to uranium, a significant amount of plutonium.

Now, what kind of idiot would put the waste pond for spend fuel right above the reactor of a nuclear plant, thus insuring that in the event of a meltdown, not only would the core of the reactor blow up into the environment, but also all of the spent fuel from prior years? Brilliant... not.

.

.

.
.
.
.

yank51

March 16th, 2011, 12:43

Well, in the past, I always was a supporter of nuclear power. I had felt it was reasonably safe, and except in a few countries, well maintained. Seems I was wrong. I always held Japan in high regards for their technical prowess and safety. They still may be, but what has transpired, in spite of their efforts, I find appalling. I no longer believe we should be building any more nuclear power facilities, period. It's not that we can't maintain them adequately, it's just that if something does go wrong, the results are, shall we say beyond what we should be required to live with. Humans have this knack for rationalizing most everything, just to make it OK to live with, and I've just realized that I no longer wish to do that. There are a few on here who have shown that they have far greater knowledge than I on nuclear power, but no matter what they say, I am no longer listening to the "it's OK" stories, period. Explain away, the US Nuclear Energy entities have lost a supporter of theirs. I say cease and desist on ALL further nuclear power plants, and let's start some serious alternative energy sources like wind and solar. Just my 2 cents...:kilroy:

kilo delta

March 16th, 2011, 14:10

How many nuclear plants along the San Andreas fault line?

Edit: Looks like it's now become the worst possible scenario...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-12766930

This has the potential to be the worst man made disaster of all time

The guys selflessly working at the plant are hero's,imo

Edit 2: Some eye opening footage.. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-12765859

alain95

March 16th, 2011, 15:05

Hello Boxcar,

I feel ashamed because that dangerous MOX comes from my country, the responsible for producing this radioactive cheese is the AREVA company ! they are based in Normandy... :redf:
I don't know who's got the idea to put the waste pond on the roof, could it be an AREVA Idea ?
France is one the main user of nuclear power in the world with 53 reactors.

I'm closely aware about recent event in the FUKUJIMA facilities by a french group who militate against nuclear power and it's civilian or military applications. It 's called "SORTIR DU NUCLEAIRE"
(Getting out of nuclear) When I started getting informations from them +/- one year ago, I felt more more sensible to those dangers. Since last Friday we live a complete nightmare.

yank51

I'm completly Ok with you, even if didn't needed the recent events for this.
The french newpapers resume the previous nuclear accidents :
- Three Mile Island 1979 : Level 5
- Tchernobyl 1986 : Level 7
- Tokaimura 1999 : Level 4
This is one more time a way to hide the truth because We had a Level 4 accident at the Tricastin facilities in 2008 !

Nuclear accidents and their consequences are the worst we can have in the history, because
they are here for a quasi Eternity, there is no more expensive price we can pay for Energy.
I hope that the politicians of my country and the other ones who employ this energy source
will definetly drive us out of this NIGHTMARE as soon as it will be possible.

I'm not a good believer but I pray for the Japan people and for those
modern time Kamikases that will cool down the reactors...

:engel016:

alain95

March 16th, 2011, 15:23

Radioactivity counter in Tokyo (Chiba) :

http://www.ustream.tv/channel/geiger-counter-chiba

The average value indicates 0,16 mS/h, Normal should be 0,01 mS/h
:engel016:

deathfromafar

March 16th, 2011, 17:22

The US NRC has deployed assessment and measurement teams into Fukushima and they officially acknowledge that there is no water being pumped into any of the reactor buildings and has not been for nearly 24 hours. Steady smoke and steam have been emitted from 3 of the 6 reactor buildings and there is indications that spent fuel in the two reactors in outage have began to overheat risking fire/explosion and containment breach of those buildings. Radiation counts have been officially listed as being at 1sv per hour inside the plant grounds with some reports of the readings being 5 to 8 times that level closer to the damaged reactors. The language being used now is pretty stark regarding the likelihood of full meltdowns and open air breaches.

I did some dose chart counts based on official reports and the numbers indicate that anyone who was within proximity of those levels continuously over the last 24 hours probably received a lethal dose. If the levels were higher, then they likely received a lethal dose much earlier.