Disappearance of Amelia Earhart

[gray eagle]

Saw a show on History Channel last night that sheds new light on the disappearance of Amelia Earhart; interesting info.

http://www.history.com/news/does-this-photo-show-amelia-earhart-after-her-plane-disappeared


(https://www.thebalance.com/earhart-lockheed-model-10-electra-282579)https://www.thebalance.com/earhart-lockheed-model-10-electra-282579


The Lockheed Aircraft Corporation designed multiple variants of the Electra Model 10, ranging from the Model 10A to the Model 10E.
The 10E model was given a more powerful engine and was the model flown by Amelia Earhart on her around-the-world flight attempt.


http://static.thisdayinaviation.com/wp-content/uploads/tdia//2013/06/xAmelia-Earhart-with-Pratt-and-Whitney-R1340-S3H1-engine-and-Hamilton-Standard-propeller.jpg.pagespeed.ic.3FY-KX3sty.jpg

Amelia Earhart poses with one of her Electra’s Pratt & Whitney Wasp S3H1 radial engines and its two-bladed Hamilton Standard 12D-40 variable-pitch, constant-speed propeller.



http://ttps://www.thisdayinaviation.com/amelia-earharts-lockheed-electra-10e-special-nr16020/

[gray eagle]

Corrections to last link in above post.


https://www.thisdayinaviation.com/amelia-earharts-lockheed-electra-10e-special-nr16020/

[Ivan]

Thanks for the link.

That article had some very good information.

- Ivan.

[Ganter]

This got me reading for a couple of hours and took me to the two most popular theories other than the most likely ditching after fuel starvation as a result of failing to locate her next landing at Howland Island:

https://tighar.org/Projects/Earhart/Archives/Research/Bulletins/78_EarhartArms/78_EarhartArms.html

and:

https://earhartsearchpng.com/2016/01/16/earhart-lockheed-electra-search-project/

I think the first link - the crash landing on Nikumaroro is credible. The second link is intriguing but...

The sad truth of it all was probably that this fine aviator was lost at sea after running out of fuel or a technical hitch.

Thanks for re-kindling my interest in this great mystery and I spent an enjoyable couple of hours checking it all out again.:encouragement:

[Toastmaker]

Mystery solved . . .


http://www.sim-outhouse.com/sohforums/attachment.php?attachmentid=52466&stc=1

[gman5250]

The interview of Dick Allgire and Yoichi Shimatsu on this subject was also quite enlightening. I don't know if the history channel documentary was based on their research or not, but the photographs are the same. Quite a compelling argument.

Shimatsu breaks down the photo analysis of the "alleged" aircraft on the barge in a very convincing argument.

https://farm5.staticflickr.com/4407/36352080495_e17ebe6ab7_o.jpg

[Moses03]

I read that the photo was debunked, having been previously published in a 1935 book.

http://mashable.com/2017/07/13/amelia-earhart-photo-debunked/#Iq7F4Ta5Giqg

[blanston12]

Yeah, it was from a Japanese travel book from 1935, a japanese researcher found it after 30 minutes of searching .

When I first saw the photo I figured it was bogus simply because if, as the theory stated, they had been captured by the Japanese army and were being taken off to prison, where were the guards?

[gman5250]

OK, so I'm going to add some data just to keep it interesting.

When I'm not building airplanes I'm an amature forensic historian, so I thought it might be fun to look at bit closer at the "debunk". BTW...those guys are usually FOS.

I'll begin by saying that I did not watch the History Channel special, I don't have television. I did however read all of Yoichi Shimatsu's white papers on this subject, and listened to a two hour interview featuring Sihimatsu. I still have that interview, and the white papers archived.


Shimatsu addresses the claim by debunkers putting the 1935 publishing date up as evidence.

Analysis Below By Yoichi Shimatsu
7-19-17

The mainstream media involved in denying the validity of a photograph taken of a Amelia Earhart and her navigator Fred Noonan on a dock at Japanese Navy-controlled Jaluit Atoll cite only one bogus claim for “debunking” that telltale evidence: That the photo is a page from a “book” published in “1935”, two years before Earhart’s disappearance.
*
These debunkers overlook the fact that the disputed photo was never reproduced in book form but was inserted into a photo album produced at the Japanese militarist spy center in Palau, at the colonialist South Sea Agency (Nanyo-cho). That photo collection was deliberated back-dated to avoid detection in case of interception by a Pacific Islander still loyal to former colonial power Germany or spies working for the Australian or Dutch intelligence services. At the time the photo was taken, nearly six months after her disappearance, those Western intelligence agencies were cooperating with the U.S. effort on an intense regional search for the missing pilot.
*
To accept at face value such a dubious date stamped by a known colonialist intelligence service is similar to how a tourist can proudly wear a $40 gold Rolex bought from a street vendor in Hong Kong or Bangkok. This sort of buffoon wants to be deceived and actually thinks he’s fooling others. Go back to Atchison, Kansas, you clodhopper, where your neighbors might actually impressed.


My Observations

I followed the CNN link to the "book".
http://dl.ndl.go.jp/info:ndljp/pid/1223403/99?itemId=info%3Andljp%2Fpid%2F1223403&contentNo=99

The photo is a very large, but over compressed file that compromises much of the detail. What I noticed right away were three problem areas.

First, the number on the page was not in Japanese, but a western typestyle.
Second, both the page number and text show a very definite affinity masking artefact that only surrounds the text, but does not appear on the paper around the print.
Third, there is a blueish color, interlacing throughout the apparent mask layer.

The photo is digitized and manipulated, so there goes the providence for accurate dating.

The fact that there are three questionable aspects to the photo give me reason to question it's authenticity. I would want to see the book or negatives.

This data supports Shimatsu's argument that the photo was actually injected into the record to obfuscate the real story.


The arguments made by the Mashable and CNN offer some reasonable conjectures, but they remain conjecture. In Shimatsu's analysis, the question is raised that the US may have been using the Amelia Earhart attempt as a data gathering exercise. Remember, in 1937 Japan was still an ally of the United States and the detaining or execution of an American citizen would have been a huge political blunder. Wars start that way.

Another interesting aspect of the photo. There appears to be a second airplane, this one on the forward deck of the tramp steamer at the left side of the photo. What this indicates, I have no idea but it is very interesting.


I don't really have any real interest in this story, but I detest debunk sites for their cavalier and grossly inaccurate and generalized "reporting". If you really want to get me going...point to Snopes as a source for anything.

Following debunk sites, I have even less regard for media news sites, particularly the aforementioned CNN.

One final little detail. I've relied on Yoichi Shimatsu for quite a few years now to provide comprehensive, well researched and vetted data. I have a large collection of his various white papers, and trust his established credential.

The Earhart story will always be a mystery, so these considerations are merely that...considerations.

I've offered this data in the interest of filling out the story a bit, and providing some tantalizing data for those who enjoy perusing the minutia.

IMO.

[Moses03]

It is an interesting photo either way.

My 2 cents (and assuming the prevailing theory) is that they ran out of avgas flying the 157-337 degree line in a desperate attempt to find Howland.

http://i.imgur.com/A1voxCi.jpg

They either perished during the ditching or maybe survived for a short time clinging to debris from the wreck.

[Ganter]

There's a bracelet (leather) on her - or his - left wrist.
I don't even think it's a woman. I think it's a native Japanese young man in his early twenties.
Amelia had quite a small nose. This chap - even with the shade from his hat playing tricks - has got a big one. He/ she has man size hands as well. Amelia's were normal female size.

The man to the right of her/ him is holding a set of paddles.
There are well to do Japanese family enjoying a day on the water.
https://s1.postimg.org/amkebafan/bracelet.jpg (https://postimg.org/image/72yglhckr/)

[lownslo]

"The arguments made by the Mashable and CNN offer some reasonable conjectures, but they remain conjecture."

Asdoes just about everything else about the Earhart disappearance. Which makes the photo not only relevant to the case, but sadly ironic as well... it is clouded in mystery and raises more questions than it answers. It did do just what the program producers and History Channel wanted though; it made them money.

Greg

[gman5250]

There's a bracelet (leather) on her - or his - left wrist.
I don't even think it's a woman. I think it's a native Japanese young man in his early twenties.
Amelia had quite a small nose. This chap - even with the shade from his hat playing tricks - has got a big one. He/ she has man size hands as well. Amelia's were normal female size.

The man to the right of her/ him is holding a set of paddles.
There are well to do Japanese family enjoying a day on the water.


The two persons of interest are the gentleman holding the sign/paddle object...allegedly Noonan, and the person sitting at the end of the dock...questionably Earhart.


Going from memory here, from Yoichi Shimatsu's research.

There has been some analysis of the object or paddle, but the source data is too poor to determine what the text says. The consensus is that the text is Japanese with one or more symbols included.
Experts have examined the body proportions of the figure alleged to be Earhart, but no definitive conclusions have been reached.

[Ganter]

Oh, right.

I'll get me coat... :very_drunk:

I'll tell you something else.

That boat on the left of the photo - it's about to go or has just come back from being out; the mainsail is only roughly furled and not neatly flaked away to be left for any length of time.
Hope that helps.

[glh]

It is a mystery to me why the USA (seemingly) did not investigate, after the war concluded, the possibility that Earhart and Noonan were held and executed by the Japanese. I have neither seen nor heard that ANY investigation or questioning was done by our people to Japanese officials and military persons responsible for their prosecution of the war.

The USA brought to trial and imposed death or long-term imprisonment sentences on quite a number of Japanese up and down the chain of command. Certainly, they could have offered a plea bargain to them; ""Tell us what happened to them (and furnish some proof) and your sentence is commuted to a lesser term."

Now, if this was done and it's buried in secret files, I certainly hope someone can get the FOI Act processes going and bring out the truth. Why keep it secret after all these years ???

If it was not done, then one would expect that the USA had not come across any evidence in the days following her overdue date that the Japanese had them.

Personally, I think that if there is no information to declassify on the subject then we need to find the plane or bodies with a DNA match (if possible and to be sure) to get a start on a solution. It is a fascinating mystery and I hope to see it resolved before my time here is up.

[Willy]

And to just to further stir the pot, I've found the "returned" to New Britain and crashed in the jungle there theory quite intriguing ever since I first read about it over 15 years ago. Those data numbers from the wreck that was found in 1945 are what does it for me.

Asbestos suit on....

[gman5250]

It is a mystery to me why the USA (seemingly) did not investigate, after the war concluded, the possibility that Earhart and Noonan were held and executed by the Japanese. I have neither seen nor heard that ANY investigation or questioning was done by our people to Japanese officials and military persons responsible for their prosecution of the war.....Now, if this was done and it's buried in secret files, I certainly hope someone can get the FOI Act processes going and bring out the truth. Why keep it secret after all these years ??


It is reasonable to maintain that certain details were sequestered in order to preserve the public perception that December 7, 1941 was a surprise attack. There is a body of respectable research that indicates the US had broken the "Purple" diplomatic code and were aware of Japans intentions.

Prior to the attack, the US had instituted a list of eight provocations that virtually guaranteed the eventuality of a hostile reaction from Japan. The PR campaign, initiated to provoke public support for the war could not allow those details to be introduced into the public awareness.

On December 8, 1941 the US declared war on Japan. Three days later Germany declared war on the United states.

In light of the fact that there were split allegiances in Japan in the lead up to these events, it's not surprising that events unfolded in the order that they did. If it was the will of the United States to enter hostilities with Germany and Japan, it could never be let known to the public that certain covert operations had been ongoing for a number of years in both theatres.

As in other "conspiracy theories" i.e. the JFK assassination, Gulf of Tonkin, Bay of Pigs etc., knowledge of the actual events eventually become such a threat to the State it becomes necessary to leave the full record of these events under the control of the State itself.

These opinions are, of course, mine alone and offered in due respect to all members whom may evaluate them.

Also looking for asbestos suit...where the heck did I leave that thing???? :very_drunk:

[n4gix]

Japanese Blogger Points Out Timeline Flaw In Supposed Earhart Photo:

http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2017/07/11/536620463/japanese-blogger-points-out-timeline-flaw-in-supposed-earhart-photo



A photograph of Jaluit Atoll was published in Umi no seimeisen : Waga nannyou no sugata, a photo book in Japan's national library. The book's publication date is listed as 1935.


A Japanese military history buff has found library records (http://yamanekobunko.blog52.fc2.com/blog-entry-338.html) showing a photo supposedly depicting Amelia Earhart survived a crash landing in 1937 was actually published two years before the famous aviator vanished.

http://dl.ndl.go.jp/view/jpegOutput?itemId=info%3Andljp%2Fpid%2F1223403&contentNo=99&outputScale=4

[Ivan]

Hello ********,

I downloaded a 5000 x 3000 resolution copy of the image being discussed and although I see something on the deck of the ship to the left, I cannot conclude that it is an aeroplane. I can't conclude that it is NOT an aeroplane either for that matter.
Do you have a better copy of the photograph?

I was about to dispute your assertion that Japan was an ally of the United States in 1937 but in your latest post, we seem to be in pretty good agreement.
.......

[Ivan]

Hello Ganter,

Here is a piece of the image I downloaded a few weeks ago.
I do not see the bracelet you describe though I do see an artifact of some kind around the dark object immediately behind.

- Ivan.

[n4gix]

Hello Ganter,

Here is a piece of the image I downloaded a few weeks ago.
I do not see the bracelet you describe though I do see an artifact of some kind around the dark object immediately behind.

- Ivan.

Ivan, it really doesn't matter, since the photo was published in a Japanese book in 1935, some two YEARS before Amelia's flight in 1937... :pop4:

In fact, if you check the Expanded Metadata, this is what you will find regarding that book's photograph:
Publication Date (W3CDTF fortmat) (issued:W3CDTF)1935

[gman5250]

Hello ********,

I downloaded a 5000 x 3000 resolution copy of the image being discussed and although I see something on the deck of the ship to the left, I cannot conclude that it is an aeroplane. I can't conclude that it is NOT an aeroplane either for that matter.
Do you have a better copy of the photograph?

I was about to dispute your assertion that Japan was an ally of the United States in 1937 but in your latest post, we seem to be in pretty good agreement.
.......

If you downloaded the photo from the Japanese link, you most likely have the same image as the one I examined.

If anyone is interested in following the link to the data questioning the dating, and origin of the photo, I can provide that. If there seems to be a consensus that the Shimatsu research is irrelevant, I'll refrain from further commentary.

[lownslo]

Japanese Blogger Points Out Timeline Flaw In Supposed Earhart Photo:

Bill, in post #9 Gordon offers some compelling testimony countering the 1935 publication date of the photo/book.

In the end, though, this claim of Earhart sitting on a dock after going missing in the Pacific expanse holds as much allure for me as the story concocted by Joe Gervais and Joe Klass claiming Earhart was alive and well and living in New Jersey as Irene Bolam. https://earharttruth.wordpress.com/tag/joe-gervais/

Don't even get me started on TIGHAR!

Greg

[Ivan]

Ivan, it really doesn't matter, since the photo was published in a Japanese book in 1935, some two YEARS before Amelia's flight in 1937... :pop4:

In fact, if you check the Expanded Metadata, this is what you will find regarding that book's photograph:
Publication Date (W3CDTF fortmat) (issued:W3CDTF)1935

Hello n4gix,

The problem with "Metadata" is that it is a creation and assignment after the fact as are the digital images we exchange so readily.
Keep in mind that in 1935, the electronic digital computer was many years in the future as were digital images, so how reliable can this assertion of metadata be?

Some things are a bit harder to dispute such as the vessel that is in the photograph and its movements. This has actually be a topic of discussion on the J-aircraft site though I get lost very easily since I do not read Japanese.


Hello lownslo,

I have actually followed the TIGHAR claims longer than this latest photographic evidence.
I believe their claims are reasonably compelling though not conclusive.
What is it that you dispute in their claims? (Other than the idea that they keep coming up in the news without having added anything substantial recently.)

- Ivan.

[lownslo]

Other than the idea that they keep coming up in the news without having added anything substantial recently.

Yep, Ivan, that's pretty close. They've created a cash flow machine and have proven quite good at getting folks to feed it.

Greg

[n4gix]

Bill, in post #9 Gordon offers some compelling testimony countering the 1935 publication date of the photo/book.
Oh I see now. Somehow I'd missed that when reading the wall of text in post #9. Thanks Greg. I'll withdraw then since I don't have a pony in this race anyway. :untroubled: